omeyr
The most important probability shifts, why they happened, and what they could affect next.
The most important probability shifts in the last 24 hours. History sampled 10 minutes ago.
Meaningful repricing up of about 1 pts.
Meaningful repricing up of about 0.4 pts.
High-impact events with a live probability source — even when they have not moved enough to enter Pulse.
Reality organized by theme — not by exchange.
Top move
Israel–Iran ceasefire+1 pts
No live signal
No live US Economy probability attached right now.
Top move
Anthropic IPO+0.4 pts
Stale source
Taiwan invasion+0.6 pts
Stale source
CLARITY Act0 pts
Stale source
Taiwan invasion+0.6 pts
No live signal
No live Elections probability attached right now.
One curated structural path; direction does not imply a measured causal magnitude.
Track events and topics you care about. Changes since your last visit appear on Following.
Key events priced near 50% — an uncertainty band, not a trading tip.