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See what changed in the future.

The most important probability shifts, why they happened, and what they could affect next.

Future Pulse

The most important probability shifts in the last 24 hours. Updated just now.

All probability moves
Meaningful move · insufficient data · as-of just now
OpenAI IPO before 2028
10%— / 24h
Technology
stale
What changed
The probability increased by about 0.4 pts over the past 24 hours. This is an observed market fact — not a news attribution.
Why
No verified catalyst identifiedNo verified catalyst identified. The probability changed in the market, but Omeyr has not verified the cause.
Confidence
low · 1 source · Source probability
May affect
  • Anthropic IPO · correlated

Meaningful repricing up of about 0.4 pts.

Key futures being watched

High-impact events with a live probability source — even when they have not moved enough to enter Pulse.

  • Taiwan invasion28%
  • Iran military action11%
  • Israel–Iran ceasefire87%
  • Taiwan blockade8%
  • OpenAI IPO10%

What Matters Now

Reality organized by theme — not by exchange.

Middle East

Live watch

Israel–Iran ceasefire87%

US Economy

No live signal

No live US Economy probability attached right now.

AI

Live watch

OpenAI IPO10%

China

Live watch

Taiwan invasion28%

Climate

No live signal

No live Climate probability attached right now.

Crypto

No live signal

No live Crypto probability attached right now.

Taiwan

Live watch

Taiwan invasion28%

Elections

No live signal

No live Elections probability attached right now.

Future Map

Open graph
  • US–Iran ceasefireIran · United States
  • Israel–Iran ceasefireIsrael · Iran
  • Iran ceasefire (unclear)Iran
  • Iran military actionIran · United States
  • Hormuz closureHormuz · Iran
  • Oil > $100Oil · Brent

Following

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